The IMF predicted that Russia would lose its place in the world’s top 6 economies due to the sanctions. The IMF predicts that by 2024, Indonesia will overtake Russia of the world’s six largest economies in terms of purchasing power parity. Experts expect that due to the sanctions, Russia’s imports will decline more than exports, reports RBC.
Indonesia in 2024 will overtake Russia in terms of its share in the world economy, derives from the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated on April 19, studied by RBC.
According to the fund’s forecast, by the end of 2022, the share of Russian GDP in world GDP will fall to 2.72% from 3.07% the results of 2021, and in 2024 – up to 2.52% . Indonesia’s share in world GDP will increase to 2.61% in the same year.
At the end of 2021, Russia still occupied the position of the sixth largest economy in the world, just behind China, the United States, India, Japan and Germany. However, the current IMF projections, which take into account a decline in Russia’s real GDP of 10.6% in total over 2022-2023, imply that Indonesia will displace Russia in seventh place.
The IMF’s April forecast horizon ends in 2027, when Russia’s share of the global economy could fall to 2.34%. The IMF’s previous forecast, published in October, was limited to 2026 and assumed that by that date Russia’s share of GDP in the world would be 2.84%.
According to previous forecasts, Russia retained the sixth largest economy in the world. According to the IMF, Russia’s share of the global economy peaked in 2008 at 3.68%. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the IMF had already predicted that Indonesia would overtake Russia in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity. However, the more confident than expected passage of the pandemic by the Russian economy (in 2020 its GDP decreased by only 2.7%, and in 2021 it increased by 4.7%) leveled this forecast. . Today, it is becoming relevant again in the context of the sanctions crisis.